James Wallis Martin wrote:
I guess if you consider becoming more efficient, becoming more cost aware, more strategic in resource allocation, and more skeptical of the media doomsayers, then clearly we are already in an economic upturn.

If your business depends on the spending habits of the mindless sheep who believe the media doomsayers, then until the media has something better to "sell" your consumers, there is no hope of an economic turnaround. However, if you can reposition your business to take advantage of the current "media hype" then you will be having the best time in your life right now.

Fortunately our products are in demand during both boom and bust times. So if this is "recession", bring it on!

Navinder Narang wrote:
Well, the best indicator to those who have been laid off would be getting equally good jobs again. Another indicator in the market would be decreasing nervousness and reducing discounts on sales.

Duane Jones wrote:
When the "Media" shuts its mouth and stops telling everyone how bad they think it is. This has been a "Media" caused meltdown that thas spiraled out of control. As long as uninformed people keep hearing negative information and react accordingly and then repropagate negative info to more ignorant people who react accordingly……and so on, and so on, etc. It's a downward spiral that has led to "no-condidence" by the masses. Everyone needs a dose of optimism. God inspired-Christ centered OPTIMISM. I'm OK because GOD is in control. Halaluya, Amen. NOW GO OUT AND GET YOUR GRANDE, NON-FAT, WHITE CHOCOLATE MOCHA.

Windy May Martin wrote:
When I can afford my grande, non-fat white chocolate mocha again

Cory Drescher wrote:
There is a simple and complex answer and I apologize in advance If someone has already stated either. They both play into one another also. I'll present to you two problems and the only solution or trigger that I see.

Cause: The baby boomers combining with Generation (X's ers) by having their children and (quantity) more of them at an older age.
Effect: Obvious Social Security (Bust/reform) call it what you will and "no pay to play" scenario. No pay to play; meaning the new generation is not multiplying sexually at a fast enough rate or working at enough jobs and or making enough money to support the generations that preceded them.

Cause: Outsourcing of Business Activities by nearly all companies to save cost and to offer better service to their customers.
Effect: Company CEO's make more money, middle management is first to go along with the middle class. Example: the service logistically that UPS provides is top notch and cheaper than most companies can do it for themselves.

ONLY solution: It is not the new generation fault it can not support the old or anyone's for that matter. We will continue to evolve as we have shown all through history. The Signal will be when the entire world, or at least a few as seen in the past, trigger many to take control of their own future. Example: start your own company in a field that has life to support you in the down turn economy. Can't get the money some may say. Don't have the money some may say. Fine sell someone else product that is still selling well today. What ever you do, do not pay for anything to sell their product. Get commission only or base plus commission. How do you find such things. Visit your local University that has an active center for entrepreneurship and ASK! Action will save this economy we just have to change ourselves.

Hale Stewart wrote:
That's an incredibly big questions. From a purely mechanical perspective, here is a list of economic indicators that are considered leading indicators:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Money supply, M2
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Index of consumer expectations

There are several important categories.

Manufacturing: when people start buying things it means manufacturers start to produce more "stuff". Therefore, look for anything that indicates manufacturers are making more "stuff".

When the economy is picking up, people start to invest in real estate. That means building permits increase.

Stocks are considered a lead indicator as well.

I should add that I write about the economy regularly on my blog: http://www.bonddad.blogspot.com/

Deepak Kumar wrote:
While there are many ways to look at this, the stock market generally leads the real economy by a few months

i'd say dow at about 25-30% gain from here would be a good indicator

Rick C wrote:
If I had to sum it up in one word "accountability"…
I'll leave it at that, I don't want to piss off any people in the banking industry until after I get my loan …hehe

Bo Varga wrote:
In US the upturn has to be driven by increase in employment, so three months of increasing employment would at least signal the bottom. Also a strong test of the Dow at 6,000 would signal a major, long term buying opportunity for patient capital. Per the comment from Mr. Porcano the economy is not one bundle but many threads. For example our high tech consulting business is up this year from last year and last year was better than 2007.

Pradyot Sahu wrote:
>It is always sunny someplace, so if you are looking for sun there is no need to >wait, just go to where the sun is already shining.

Good thoughts Leonard !

Leonard Porcano wrote:
I think we often think of the economy as being mechanical, where it is either moving in one direction or another. The problem is that it is not really mechanical at all. When you look at economic cycles, it is almost never the same businesses which lead you out of a recession, as lead you into one. There are some businesses which are already growing. It is these businesses that are already growing which will fuel the next expansion. At the same time, you still have contraction going on in other areas, so the economy as a whole may still be contracting even as it is growing.

The business media is somewhat obsessed with identifying a point where the economy turns, they want to turn an organism like the economy into a line on a chart. The problem with this mentality is that a line on a chart can not possibly represent the complexity of an organism like the economy. I don't believe that focusing on this point or the other is helpful. Instead look at the areas that are already growing, and put your attention there.

It is always sunny someplace, so if you are looking for sun there is no need to wait, just go to where the sun is already shining.

Fabio Bernardes wrote:
Maybe the continuity in retail sales (consumer & package goods) for more 3 months would a be a good indicator and so, the companies may start to release their B2B projects.

Bruce Bartlett wrote:
A rise in interest rates. An increase above their present anemic level would indicate firming markets, but at the same time a slight rise would place us at a still historic low showing improvement, but still not back to norms.

Abhishek Srivastava wrote:
I think core sectors growth numbers can indicate that, so in indian context, IIP numbers are a sign. This number has been showing weakness for the last f

ew quarters. Second factor to look for is bond yield numbers. It is important for the banks to raise money at low cost and accordingly make it available at low cost to the corporates/business which allows industries to expand. So we should also look at Givt bond rates and Corporate Bind rates, it is in the same order that indicates softening.

Finally, the consumer spending numbers, look at the quarter financial numbers of retail chains like Big Bazaar, which is a real indicator of indian middle class's spending.

Atul Jain wrote:
In economist terms, there could be many. In common man terms, here are few –
1. No fear of job-loss for people who are working
2. No further Job loss news in news papers
3. Companies start hiring and people start getting jobs that they deserve
4. Stock market moving up every week for at least 1 month – at least 5% per week
5. People stop posting blogs on downturn or recession
6. No unexpected SALE in malls and shops
…. and many more