My Predictions for Telecom Industry in 2009 & 2010
- Greater focus on data services and fewer tariff wars as focus shifts to managing EBIDTA margins
- Both the handset manufacturers and operators would focus on the handset OS platform
- Smart Phones likely to be the fastest growing category amongst handsets
- Handset vendors to aggressively push GPS
- Mobile RSS Feeds and Widgets to emerge stronger
- Social Networking (esp. IM+eMail) to be the driver of Internet adoption on mobiles
- Music, video, gaming and location to adopt the social networking platform which would in turn drive their adoption
- Mobile Money Transfer (MMT) to gain traction with Central Banks across the world coming out with regulations in favour of MMT considering the convenience and high penetration of mobiles
- Mobile applications to get mainstream
- Carrier Walled Gardens would disappear leading to better content development by independent VAS companies
- 4G technology debate to be decided in favour of LTE. WiMax would go down fighting but will still manage substantial installations as a support to 3G/LTE
- Consolidation amongst carrier and cross-border deals in emerging markets likely to give boost to M&A activities
- Mobile entertainment to grow as the cheapest source of entertainment during the tough economic conditions
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I see a few more activities: Bringing more and more utlity services on mobile. This will hold true for Matured and well as Emerging market.
Platform owners promoting opening up their APIs for agnostic developments by 3rd party developers
The entire value chain players offerings remain complex for the end user (mass users) and hence they opting for the simple ones.
Operator’s relinquishing their control in value chain to promote others (either by will or under obligation/s).
You have covered most of them on your blog. Some other changes we might see are -
1. As more players enter the smartphone market, we might see separate price-tiers for different segments. Today, the high-tier dominates, but growth in emerging regions will mean that the mid- and entry-tiers will grab ever more
share in the future.
2. There are a lot of discussions around femtocells, we should see some action on this front in the next couple of years. The drive to push smart functionality in devices down through the value chain, while simultaneously introducing flat tariff pricing plans, will assist the adoption of femtocells and a more expansive FMC approach.
3. GPS in phones will become very common driving location based services and be a key component of other services like Games, Advertising, Social networking/messaging etc.
want to know more about femtocells
Hello Mohit,
1. I’d like to differ on your point on tariff wars; with Reliance & Tata foraying into GSM, small incumbent players like Aircel & Shyam going pan-India and new entrants rolling out networks (even with the aim of meeting obligations) and struggling to find foothold and 3G pushed out for the end of the year for all practical purposes, tariff wars would continue at least through 2009
2. Adoption of mobile advertising and serious attempts at deployment will be made in 2009-10. Carriers and third parties alike will partner with technology platform providers and other value chain players for demographic & psychographic profiling of the consumers for better targeting
3. Increased attempts at Direct-to-Consumer distribution will be made not just by VAS value chain players, but other players in the industry and across industries to bypass the operators and ease their stronghold on VAS revenue share
Mobile Money Transfer (MMT) to gain traction with Central Banks across the world coming out with regulations in favour of MMT considering the convenience and high penetration of mobiles:
Question – What is Indian regulatory plan for the same? is it open?